Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

514
FXUS65 KCYS 112335
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of severe weather expected Saturday afternoon
  with strong gusty winds and small hail being the primary
  concerns.

- Drier conditions expected Sunday and Monday with a Red Flag
  Warning in effect for areas east of the Laramie Range.

- There will be a chance of afternoon and evening showers and a
  few thunderstorms Monday through Friday, with the best chances
  on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A shortwave ejecting northeast out of the Great Basin region this
afternoon will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The shortwave will provide
needed lift, while modest mid-level moisture and steep lapse rates
help facilitate thunderstorm development. Model soundings show CAPE
values typical of what`s expected early in the convective season,
generally around 500 J/kg. However, the kicker is the inverted-V
profiles on the model soundings which provide insight on what to
expect today. Daytime heating and west to southwest winds will dry
out the low-levels, providing the basis for these inverted-V
profiles. These dry low-levels indicate the primary threat in storms
this afternoon and evening will be strong, gusty winds. DCAPE values
are sub-1000 J/kg for the most part, but are still elevated enough
to see at least marginal severe wind gusts around 60 MPH. Cannot
rule out small hail in storms as the freezing level remains
relatively low this time of year. Main timeframe for storms will be
between 2 PM and 8 PM, with storms quickly dissipating later this
evening as the shortwave moves into the Dakotas.

Conditions on Sunday will be drier behind the shortwave as weak, but
brief ridging builds in. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
than Saturday, but will remain 10 to 15 degrees above average for
mid-April. West to southwest winds will provide downslope across
much of the area, drying out the low-levels and leading to fire
weather concerns. As a result, went ahead and upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch for the eastern half of the CWA Sunday afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. Dry conditions will continue into the overnight
hours as an upper-level jet begins to move into the CWA from the
southwest. This will support downsloping winds, as well as usher in
dry desert air. Overnight humidity recoveries east of the Laramie
Range are expected to be poor, with dry conditions expected once
again on Monday in the same areas.

Yet another shortwave will attempt to push into the northern Rockies
late Sunday night into Monday. Hi-Res guidance shows the potential
for a few isolated showers developing overnight Sunday west of
the Laramie Range. However, the low-levels remain dry, so its
possible that these showers only produce gusty winds and virga
per modeled inverted-V soundings. Much of this will also be true
on Monday with prominent inverted-V profiles. Further west, it
is possible snow showers will develop which could lead to some
light accumulations over the high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

As we move into the middle of next week, the pattern will remain
active and progressive, with a series of shortwave troughs moving
through Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. With the forcing
for ascent appearing to be weak at this time, in addition to PWAT
values around climatology, confidence in seeing any appreciable
precipitation is low, which is certainly not what we want to see
given our severe to extreme drought conditions across our entire
region. In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday look to be 5-10
degrees above climatology mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s along
and east of the I-25 corridor, with 40s and 50s west of the Laramie
Range.

Numerous shortwave troughs embedded in the flow continue to traverse
our area Wednesday and Thursday in this progressive pattern.
However, the strongest DCVA is progged to be well to our south over
Eastern Colorado, so QPF looks to remain spotty and light with
amounts generally < 0.1" as suggested by LREF ensemble guidance.
Winds are also expected to ramp up on Wednesday morning, with in-
house random forest guidance giving both Arlington and Bordeaux 35-
40% probabilities of exceeding high wind criteria. This is due to an
enhanced gradient thanks to lee cyclogenesis occurring over
Southwestern Nebraska, resulting in 700 mb flow increasing to 40-45
knots. Temperatures are also expected to be mild given the downslope
flow regime, with NBM 50th percentile temperatures approaching 70
degrees for our Nebraska counties on Wednesday, increasing to 70-75
degrees on Thursday. It`s a little far out at this time, but would
not be shocked to see a few 80 degree readings on Thursday as 500 mb
heights rise ahead of the next incoming system. Depending on how
much moisture we can squeeze out of each weak impulse this week,
fire highlights may be needed during the Wednesday-Thursday
timeframe given the increase in winds, dry fuels, anomalously warm
temperatures, and mean RH progged to be below 20%.

Friday will feature much cooler temperatures behind a cold front
moving through Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska overnight, so
can expect high temperatures to run about 20 degrees cooler relative
to Thursday. Week mid-level ridging builds across the area into the
weekend, so anticipate a warming trend and dry conditions at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the TAF period for all of
our Wyoming and Nebraska terminals. Expect any remaining showers and
thunderstorms to fade within a couple of hours of sunset as daytime
heating dwindles. 10-15 knot SW flow will remain in place through
16Z Sunday before wind gusts increase to 25-30 knots, with KRWL
seeing occasional gusts of 35-40 knots. Expect most clouds to move
out this evening leaving behind just a few high clouds aoa 20
kft.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     WYZ417>419-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB